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increasing population growth -- which the people are successfully disregarding. (In a recent and
significant change from traditional positions, however, the French Assembly overwhelmingly
endorsed a law not only authorizing general availability of contraceptives but also providing that
their cost be borne by the social security system.) Other western NATO members have no
policies.1/ Most provide some or substantial family planning services. All appear headed toward
lower growth rates. In two NATO member countries (West Germany and Luxembourg), annual
numbers of deaths already exceed births, yielding a negative natural growth rate.
Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Czechoslovakia have active policies to increase their
population growth rates despite the reluctance of their people to have larger families. Within the
USSR, fertility rates in RSFSR and the republics of Ukraine, Latvia, and Estonia are below
replacement level. This situation has prevailed at least since 1969-1970 and, if continued, will
eventually lead to negative population growth in these republics. In the United States, average
fertility also fell below replacement level in the past two years (1972 and 1973). There is a
striking difference, however, in the attitudes toward this demographic development in the two
countries. While in the United States the possibility of a stabilized (non-growing) population is
generally viewed with favor, in the USSR there is perceptible concern over the low fertility of
Slavs and Balts (mostly by Slavs and Balts). The Soviet government, by all indications, is
studying the feasibility of increasing their sagging birth rates. The entire matter of
fertility-bolstering policies is circumscribed by the relatively high costs of increasing fertility
(mainly through increased outlays for consumption goods and services) and the need to avoid the
appearance of ethnic discrimination between rapidly and slowly growing nationalities.
U.N. medium projections to the year 2000 show no significant changes in the relative
demographic position of the western alliance countries as against eastern Europe and the USSR.
The population of the Warsaw Pact countries will remain at 65 percent of the populations of
NATO member states. If Turkey is excluded, the Warsaw Pact proportion rises somewhat from
70 percent in 1970 to 73 percent by 2000. This change is not of an order of magnitude that in
itself will have important implications for east-westpower relations. (Future growth of manpower
in NATO and Warsaw Pact nations has not been examined in this Memorandum.)
Of greater potential political and strategic significance are prospective changes in the
populations of less developed regions both among themselves and in relation to developed
countries.
Africa. Assessment of future demographic trends in Africa is severely impeded by lack
of reliable base data on the size, composition, fertility and mortality, and migration of much of
the continent's population. With this important limitation in mind, the population of Africa is
projected to increase from 352 million in 1970 to 834 million in 2000, an increase of almost 2.5
times. In most African countries, population growth rates are likely to increase appreciably
1/ Turkey has a policy of population control.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL 31
before they begin to decline. Rapid population expansion may be particularly burdensome to the
"least developed" among Africa's LDCs including according to the U.N. classification --
Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Upper Volta, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Burundi, Guinea,
Chad, Rwanda, Somalia, Dahomey, Lesotho, and Botswana. As a group, they numbered 104
million in 1970 and are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.0 percent a year, to some 250
million in 2000. This rate of growth is based on the assumption of significant reductions in
mortality. It is questionable, however, whether economic and social conditions in the foreseeable
future will permit reductions in mortality required to produce a 3 percent growth rate.
Consequently, the population of the "least developed" of Africa's LDCs may fall short of the 250
million figure in 2000.
African countries endowed with rich oil and other natural resources may be in a better
economic position to cope with population expansion. Nigeria falls into this category. Already
the most populous country on the continent, with an estimated 55 million people in 1970 (see
footnote to Table 4), Nigeria's population by the end of this century is projected to number 135
million. This suggests a growing political and strategic role for Nigeria, at least in Africa south of
the Sahara.
In North Africa, Egypt's population of 33 million in 1970 is projected to double by 2000.
The large and increasing size of Egypt's population is, and will remain for many years, an
important consideration in the formulation of many foreign and domestic policies not only of
Egypt but also of neighbouring countries.
Latin America. Rapid population growth is projected for tropical South American which
includes Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. Brazil, with a current
population of over 100 million, clearly dominates the continent demographically; by the end of
this century, its population is projected to reach the 1974 U.S. level of about 212 million people.
Rapid economic grows] prospects -- if they are not diminished by demographic overgrowth --
portend a growing power status for Brazil in Latin America and on the world scene over the next
25 years.
The Caribbean which includes a number of countries with promising family
planning programs Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Cuba, Barbados and also Puerto Rico) is
projected to grow a 2.2 percent a year between 1970 and 2000, a rate below the Latin American
average of 2.8 percent.
Perhaps the most significant population trend from the view point of the United States is
the prospect that Mexico's population will increase from 50 million in 1970 to over 130 million
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